ADB Maintains China’s 2025 Growth Forecast, Lowers Inflation Outlook

MANILA, PHILIPPINES (30 September 2025) — The economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is forecast to grow by 4.7% in 2025, unchanged from the April projection and close to the government’s target of about 5.0%, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025 released today by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Growth is expected to moderate to 4.3% in 2026.

Expansionary fiscal policy, robust industrial activity, and strong exports drove higher-than-expected gross domestic product growth in the first half of 2025. However, the worsened external environment as well as the ongoing property market weakness and subdued household income growth and consumption are expected to continue weighing on growth in the second half of the year and into 2026.

“Policy support, including fiscal expansion and targeted subsidies, has helped sustain growth momentum despite headwinds from the property sector and external trade tensions,” said ADB Country Director for the PRC Asif S. Cheema. “Continued efforts to boost domestic consumption will be crucial for sustaining growth as external uncertainties may weigh on the demand for PRC exports.”

Inflation is now forecast at 0% for 2025 (down from 0.4% in April) and 0.4% for 2026 (down from 0.7%), reflecting continued food price deflation and subdued domestic demand.

Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Global trade environment and policy uncertainties pose challenges to the growth outlook. Timely implementation of stimulus and reform measures as suggested during the July Politburo meeting remains crucial to effectively offset these possible headwinds.

ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth across Asia and the Pacific. Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members—50 from the region.

Lifted from original news article: ADB Maintains China’s 2025 Growth Forecast, Lowers Inflation Outlook