Tag: Economics

ADB Maintains China’s 2025 Growth Forecast, Lowers Inflation Outlook

MANILA, PHILIPPINES (30 September 2025) — The economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is forecast to grow by 4.7% in 2025, unchanged from the April projection and close to the government’s target of about 5.0%, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025 released today by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Growth is expected to moderate to 4.3% in 2026.

Expansionary fiscal policy, robust industrial activity, and strong exports drove higher-than-expected gross domestic product growth in the first half of 2025. However, the worsened external environment as well as the ongoing property market weakness and subdued household income growth and consumption are expected to continue weighing on growth in the second half of the year and into 2026.

“Policy support, including fiscal expansion and targeted subsidies, has helped sustain growth momentum despite headwinds from the property sector and external trade tensions,” said ADB Country Director for the PRC Asif S. Cheema. “Continued efforts to boost domestic consumption will be crucial for sustaining growth as external uncertainties may weigh on the demand for PRC exports.”

Inflation is now forecast at 0% for 2025 (down from 0.4% in April) and 0.4% for 2026 (down from 0.7%), reflecting continued food price deflation and subdued domestic demand.

Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Global trade environment and policy uncertainties pose challenges to the growth outlook. Timely implementation of stimulus and reform measures as suggested during the July Politburo meeting remains crucial to effectively offset these possible headwinds.

ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth across Asia and the Pacific. Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members—50 from the region.

Lifted from original news article: ADB Maintains China’s 2025 Growth Forecast, Lowers Inflation Outlook

Finance and Technologies for Grassland Ecosystem Restoration

Grasslands are vital ecosystems for both Mongolia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), supporting biodiversity, climate regulation, and the livelihoods of pastoral communities. However, both countries face increasing pressures from land degradation, desertification, and climate change. 

The PRC has implemented a range of large-scale restoration initiatives and ecological compensation schemes, alongside community-based conservation and development practices. These combined top-down and bottom-up approaches have achieved measurable improvements in vegetation cover, ecosystem resilience, and rural incomes. Meanwhile, Mongolia is advancing national strategies through its National Adaptation Plan and investment programs such as the Aimag and Soum Green Regional Economic Development Program, emphasizing grassland ecosystem restoration and sustainable livelihood development for herding communities. 

The seminar, held in conjunction with the visit of a high-level Mongolian government delegation to the PRC, aims to deepen knowledge exchange on effective supportive policies, financial mechanisms, and technologies for grassland restoration and sustainable pastoral management. Discussions will draw on lessons from the PRC’s experience at national and subnational levels and explore opportunities for continued knowledge sharing and collaboration. 

The delegation visit and seminar are supported by the ADB–PRC Regional Knowledge Sharing Initiative (RKSI), a South–South platform co-hosted by the Ministry of Finance of the PRC and ADB to facilitate knowledge exchange among ADB’s developing member countries. Under RKSI’s umbrella, the Talk China Seminar Series convenes experts and decision-makers to engage on urgent development themes. 

Language: Chinese, Mongolian, English (Chinese-Mongolian and Chinese-English interpretation will be provided) 

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Date/TimeSession
08:30-08:40Welcome remarks
Mr. Asif S. Cheema, Country Director, ADB PRC Resident Mission
08:40-08:50Sharing I: Green finance to support grassland restoration and management
Ms. Yan Wang, Director, Green Finance Division, Research Bureau of the People’s Bank of China (TBC)
08:50-09:00Sharing II: Ecological rangeland management
Ms. Keyu Bai, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
09:00-09:10Sharing III: Ecosystem valuation: eco-compensation mechanisms, gross environment product (GEP), and natural capital
Mr. Au Shion Yee, ADB Principal Water Resources Specialist
09:10-09:20Sharing IV: Carbon market development and grassland carbon credits
Mr. Zhi Cheng, Chief Engineer, Ningxia CDM Service Center
09:20-09:30 Sharing V: Social capital mobilization for desertification control
Ms. Jing Sun, Director of Desertification Prevention and Control, Society of Entrepreneurs and Ecology (SEE) Foundation
09:30-10:30Discussions
Facilitated by Mr. Aiming Zhou, Deputy Country Director, ADB PRC Resident Mission
10:30-10:40 Closing remarks
  • Ms. Munkhbayasgalan Luvsanbyambaa, Member of Mongolia State Great Hural/Parliament, and Head of Mongolian delegation
  • Mr. Aiming Zhou, Deputy Country Director, ADB PRC Resident Mission

East Asia Forum 2025 and Talk China Seminar 

ADB’s East Asia Forum (EAF) is an annual event organized by the East Asia Department (EARD) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The forum aims to share lessons from ADB’s operations and knowledge work in East Asia—with special emphasis on the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—with a wider audience. In the spirit of South-South learning, the EAF facilitates the exchange of ideas and practices among key stakeholders in Asia and the Pacific. It is supported by EARD-administered technical assistance and various funding sources, including the People’s Republic of China’s Poverty Reduction and Regional Cooperation Fund (PRCF).

The East Asia Forum 2025, with the theme “Advancing High-Quality Development in East Asia: Productivity, Innovation, and Economic Openness,” aims to:

  • Share knowledge and good practices from East Asia on enhancing productivity, driving innovation, and promoting economic openness, notably in the service sector.
  • Discuss key trends in achieving high-quality economic development.
  • Explore innovative practices, policies, and technologies to increase productivity, encourage innovation, and further open economic sectors.
  • Encourage replication of successful experiences from the PRC and other East Asian economies across other ADB members.

The ADB–PRC Regional Knowledge Sharing Initiative (RKSI) is a South–South platform jointly established by the Ministry of Finance of the PRC and ADB to promote development knowledge exchange among ADB’s developing member countries. As part of its efforts, RKSI organizes the Talk China Seminar Series, a quarterly event that brings together experts and policymakers to explore pressing development issues. The upcoming session- the third in the series- will focus on harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) for high-quality development, featuring expert discussions and field visits to AI sites in Beijing.

Venue: Kerry Hotel, Beijing

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Agenda

Date/TimeSession
8:30-9:00Registration
9:00-9:30Welcome Remarks
Scott Morris, Vice-President (East and Southeast Asia, and the Pacific), Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Distinguished Guest Speaker
Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, People’s Republic of China
9:30-9:35Photo Session
9:35-9:50Setting the Stage: Enhancing Productivity and Openness in East Asia and Beyond
Chong-En Bai, Dean of the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
9:50-10:20Coffee/Tea Break
10:20-12:40Session 1: Boosting Productivity through Competition and Innovation: Experience from the PRC and Other Countries

Presentation 1: Boosting Total Factor Productivity through Competition and Innovation: Experience of the PRC
Bert Hofman, National University of Singapore, former Country Director of World Bank, PRC, and former Chief Economist for the World Bank in the East Asia and Pacific region

Presentation 2: Australia’s Experience in Boosting Productivity and Competitiveness
Catie Bradbear, Assistant Commissioner, Australian Productivity Commission

Panel Discussion
Moderator: Scott Morris, Vice-President (East and Southeast Asia, and the Pacific), ADB

Panelists:
  • Qiong Zhang, Director and Professor, Renmin University of China
  • Elisa Hörhager, Chief Representative China, Federation of German Industries (BDI)
  • Dong Liu, Chairman and Principal Partner of Ping An Capital Co., Ltd.
  • Albert Park, Chief Economist and Director General, Economic Research and Development Impact Department, ADB

Q and A
12:40-2:30Lunch break
2:30-4:30Session 2: Expanding Economic Openness and Service Sector Liberalization in the PRC and Experience from Other Countries

Presentation 1:
Shamshad Akhtar, Chairperson of Board of Directors for Pakistan Stock Exchange; former Minister of Finance, Government of Pakistan; former Executive Secretary of UNESCAP

Presentation 2: Opening the PRC’s Services Industry for Innovative and Shared Development
Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås, Visiting Professor, Örebro University, Sweden; Senior Associate, Council on Economic Policies, Switzerland

Panel Discussion
Moderator: Justine Diokno-Sicat, Alternate Executive Director, ADB

Panelists:
  • Yuze Luo, Deputy Director General, Department of Foreign Economic Research, DRC
  • Cui Fan, Professor, University of International Business and Economics, PRC
  • Arpita Mukherjee, Professor of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (online)
  • Dongsoo Kang, Executive Director, Global Knowledge Exchange and Development Center, Korean Development Institute, Republic of Korea


Q and A
4:30-4:45Closing Remarks
Shu Zhan, Alternate Executive Director, ADB
4:45 onwardsNetworking Reception
Date/TimeSession
9:00-9:10 Opening Remarks
Muhammad Ehsan Khan, Director General, East Asia Department, ADB
Zhan Shu, Alternate Executive Director, ADB
9:10-10:10 Session 1: What Experiences from the PRC Can be Learned and Replicated in the Region

Presentation: Promoting AI Applications for High-Quality Development in the PRC
Tongning Wu, Deputy Director Artificial Intelligence Research Institute China Academy of Information and Communications Technology

Panel Discussion:
Moderator: Aiming Zhou, Deputy Country Director, ADB PRC Resident Mission

Panelists
  • Sen Gong, Director, Centre for International Studies on Development and Governance, Zhejiang University
  • Patrick Renz, Director’s Advisor, ADB
  • Huijie Zhang, Deputy Director General, Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
  • Ikram Ul Haque Qureshi, Member, Ministry of Information Technology and Telecommunication, Pakistan
10:10-10:30 Tea Break
10:30-11:30 Session 2: How ADB Can Support DMCs with AI Application to Promote High-Quality Development

Presentation: ADB’s Role in Promoting AI Application in the Region
Albert Park, Chief Economist and Director General, Economic Research and Development Impact Department, ADB

Panel Discussion:
Moderator: Bobur Alimov, Advisor, EARD, ADB

Panelists:
  • Boediastoeti Ontowirjo, Deputy Chairman for Research and Innovation Policy, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia
  • Justine Diokno-Sicat, Alternate Executive Director, ADB
  • Yongping Zhai, Senior Advisor, Strategic Development Department, Tencent
  • Antonio G. Zaballos, Director, Digital Sector Office, ADB

Q and A
11:30-13:00Lunch break
13:00-14:00Departure from the Kerry Hotel for site visit
14:00-16:30Site visit: Beijing Innovation Center of Humanoid Robotics, Beijing High-level Autonomous Driving Demonstration (BJHAD) Zone Innovation and Operation Center, to experience the WeRide Autonomous Bus.
16:30-17:30Return to the hotel
Day 1
Day 2 AM
Day 3 PM (Site Visit)

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Bridging Skills Gaps: Central Asia Can Learn From Guangxi’s TVET Innovations

Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) is essential for economic development, supplying the skills required for the evolving labor markets. By aligning vocational education with industry needs, TVET enhances employability, reduces skills gaps, and boosts productivity. It plays a critical role in fostering inclusive growth, improving workforce quality, and ensuring a competitive edge in the global economy.

To support learning from a robust model of TVET development, ADB-PRC Regional Knowledge Sharing Initiative (RKSI) has financed a knowledge exchange for ten government officials and vocational school leaders from five Central Asian countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) to Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, located in southern People’s Republic of China (PRC) on 9–12 December 2024. The study tour was organized by Sectors Group Human and Social Development Sector Office (SG-HSD) and Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) and also brought seven ADB sector specialists from Manila headquarters and several country offices. As a key gateway between PRC and Southeast Asia, Guangxi has been at the forefront of cross-border cooperation and benefitted from ADB-financed programs to enhance its TVET system. The knowledge exchange provided an opportunity to explore PRC’s best practices in modernizing its TVET system, focusing on industry partnerships, work-based learning, and income-generation activities, with insights from ADB-supported programs.

Policies and ADB’s Support on Guangxi’s TVET System

Guangxi has made significant policy efforts in advancing TVET, including the establishment of vocational education reform pilot zones in collaboration with the Ministry of Education in 2009–2013. In 2019, the region launched a program to build high-level vocational colleges, known as the “Double Excellence, Double High” initiative, which focuses on improving the quality of education and training. In 2023, Guangxi became a pilot province for the Ministry of Education’s modern vocational education system, solidifying its commitment to aligning TVET with industry needs.

A key driver of Guangxi’s progress was the Guangxi Modern TVET Development Program (2017–2022), co-financed by ADB and KfW Bankengruppe. This results-based lending program focused on improving the relevance, quality, and inclusiveness of TVET education. By aligning curricula with local labor market demands in the region’s priority growth sectors, the program helped equip students with practical skills, thereby improving employment opportunities, reducing the “skills gap” and driving regional economic development. The program received the 2021 ADB Best Performance Loan Project Award and benefited over one million students.

With the program now completed, its achievements have broader implications as a regional public good. Through facilitating cross-border knowledge exchange, particularly in areas like industry partnerships, curriculum development and the creation of international training bases, Guangxi has shared valuable lessons with neighboring countries.

Central Asia’s Challenges on TVET

Acute shortages of well-trained and job-ready workforce hinder Central Asian countries’ economic growth. Low quality of vocational skills, a mismatch between education and labor market needs, outdated infrastructure, and resource constraints limit the region’s ability to build a competitive workforce to align with the growing market demand. All Central Asian countries are taking measures to enhance their TVET systems, improve the quality and relevance of education, and develop better linkages with industry. Guangxi’s successful experiences, particularly in aligning TVET curricula with labor market demand and fostering cross-border cooperation, made it an ideal model to learn from.

Guangxi’s Approach to TVET Development

Guangxi’s modernization of its TVET system stands out not only for its alignment with local industry needs but also for its emphasis on international cooperation—particularly with ASEAN countries. This strategic positioning, due to Guangxi’s proximity to Southeast Asia, has allowed the region to serve as a key platform for cross-border educational and technical exchanges, closely linked to supporting mutual economic benefits.

Among the key initiatives driving Guangxi’s success in TVET are:

  • Strategic alignment: Guangxi’s TVET sector plans have been built on the central government’s Five-Year Plan(s), which ensured alignment of skills development with forecasted growth of priority sectors in the province – this was key in reducing the “skills mismatch” between TVET and labor market needs.
  • Highly developed school-industry partnerships: Guangxi brought industry to the schools by setting up fully equipped operational workshops working under direct partnership arrangements with the industry and offering goods and services to the market. Colleges are incentivized by financial freedom and benefits that such partnership bring.
  • Cross-border knowledge exchange and curriculum development: Guangxi has established platforms such as the China-ASEAN Vocational Education Exhibition and Forum, which facilitates the exchange of best practices in TVET. This forum has led to more than 100 signed projects, promoting curriculum development and industry training practices.
  • Building overseas training bases: Guangxi has expanded its international reach by establishing China-ASEAN Modern Craftsmen Colleges. These institutions focus on building a highly skilled workforce, with a focus on the “Chinese + Vocational Education” model, enhancing both local and international faculty, and promoting cross-cultural exchanges in technical training.
  • Preparing a tech-savvy workforce: With rapid technological advancements in recent decades and the growing need for a tech-savvy workforce to meet future demands, Guangxi has strategically aligned its TVET programs to cultivate a future-ready workforce across all sectors. Technologies such as big data, intelligent robotics, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and other digital solutions are being seamlessly integrated into all vocational training areas. This tech-first approach, combined with the pervasive incorporation of technology throughout TVET, promises a bright future for workforce development.
  • Internationalization of TVET: The China-ASEAN Vocational Education Cloud Platform allows the sharing of international teaching resources, benefiting vocational institutions across ASEAN countries. With over 199 shared resources, this platform enhances the quality of education across the region. Guangxi also offers scholarships to students from ASEAN countries, with over 1,000 students annually enrolled in vocational programs at Guangxi’s institutions. This exchange not only enhances the educational experience but also fosters long-term ties between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors.

Conclusion

Guangxi’s experience in modernizing its TVET system offers valuable lessons for Central Asia and beyond. The success of the ADB-supported Guangxi Modern TVET Development Program highlights the importance of aligning vocational education with industry needs, fostering international cooperation, and improving educational quality. As Central Asia faces similar challenges, Guangxi’s approach may serve as a model for enhancing TVET systems, promoting cross-border knowledge exchange, and developing skilled workforce.

Participants’ reflections:

“Azerbaijan can benefit from applying Guangxi’s best practices to improve vocational education by collaborating with both local industries and international partners, particularly in areas such as green energy and technological innovations. All these aspects provide valuable potential for adaptation and application in Azerbaijan, where reforms in vocational education and training are ongoing.”

Rustam Abdullaev, Head of the Vocational Education Policy Division, Ministry of Science and Education, Azerbaijan

“The knowledge gained about the Chinese TVET system significantly expanded our horizons. I was especially impressed by the acquaintance with the dual education system in colleges in Nanning and Guilin. We are grateful for the knowledge, which will certainly help us in further developing our systems.”

Myrad Kerjayev, Head of Ashgabat Secondary Professional School of Tourism, Turkmenistan

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Regional Public Goods Can be a Powerhouse for Development

In an increasingly interconnected world, regional public goods (RPGs) provide a compelling framework for countries to cooperate for sustainable development. RPGs include a wide array of assets and services to promote economic growth, social welfare, and environmental sustainability.

Public goods can be placed in three main categories: economic public goods, social public goods, and environmental public goods. 

Economic public goods are those that are directly related to economic growth and industrialization, such as infrastructure for transportation, communication, energy, and irrigation systems. Economic institutions, regulatory frameworks, and government macroeconomic policies can also be included. 

Social public goods include legal systems, public health and epidemic prevention, social safety nets, public security, museums, public libraries, and parks.

Environmental public goods include environmental protection systems and policies, ecological restoration, renewable energy development, and climate change mitigation and adaptation programs. 

Education, scientific research, technology, innovation, and all kinds of knowledge are all linked to these public goods.

Developing countries share common interests and needs for public goods because they face similar problems at similar stages of development. Often, they have common goals and priorities for economic development, such as poverty relief, industrialization, increasing productivity, urbanization, and reduction of income disparities. Here, cooperation between developing countries may create important regional public goods for joint development. 

For example, regional and international transportation as well as communication networks improve connectivity among countries, enlarge the market for all, and in turn, improve the efficiency of national infrastructure systems. 

Regional trade and investment agreements facilitate economic development and cooperation of the countries involved in the treaty. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership treaty is an example of how all parties involved can benefit through regional cooperation.

Meanwhile, regional public health systems and epidemic prevention mechanisms are key to minimizing the pandemic risks for people in the region and beyond.

Regional networks can also play an important role in natural disaster management and mitigation as well as cross-border environment protection and ecological preservation (one example would be ADB’s Regional Flyway Initiative).

The Paris Agreement is a global public good that aims to tackle the challenge of climate change. However, its benefits can truly be realized through regional cooperation. A specific area for regional collaboration is energy transition through which governments can utilize latest technologies to reduce carbon emissions. 

Global public goods can also be promoted through regional cooperation on cyber security and Artificial Intelligence (AI). 

The provision of global public goods requires coordination between regional and global institutions to facilitate project designs, financing, and technical assistance. This facilitation can be done through a regional mechanism or within an international framework. 

Knowledge sharing is imperative for joint development. Particularly essential is knowledge of recent development practices and experience in all countries, including policies implemented, technologies applied, and business models used and the problems that arise when facing new conditions. People from diverse backgrounds will benefit immensely through such knowledge exchanges. Every developing country, regardless of its size and levels of productivity, can offer some good experiences or lessons for others to learn and benefit from. A useful example is the influence of Bangladesh’s microfinance model.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s role in regional development

The PRC is still a developing country, in terms of both gross national income per capita and industrial productivity. However, as a large economy, the PRC has a special responsibility to contribute to regional development.

Four important initiatives for economic development of the region deserve mention. 

The first pertains to regional connectivity infrastructure (road, railway, ports, airports and telecommunications), which the PRC has facilitated. Better connectivity means greater market access and higher productivity, particularly for inland countries. The PRC-Europe rail route has greatly stabilized global supply chains in the wake of conflict disrupting vital shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

The second involves industrial development facilities, such as industrial parks. In recent years, the PRC has engaged in developing “two parks in two countries” mechanisms with Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam, which provide mutual common goods for the companies from “the other country.”  

The third initiative is the technology and business model for energy transition. Knowledge sharing in this regard will not only contribute to the battle against climate change, but also provide new ways to help countries increase their capacity for energy generation for the next stage of development. 

The fourth initiative is cross-border environment protection and ecological system preservation for sustainable development. It is in the common interest of all countries in our region and beyond to prevent damage of our ecological systems.  

Priorities for developing countries

In principle, all public goods are good and beneficial for everyone, one way or another.  However, for countries at different stages of development, their priorities may be different. 

For low-income countries, the most urgent need is more economic public goods related to their industrialization and economic structural upgrade, such as physical infrastructure and industrial facilities. Economic growth will enable these countries to finance their social and environmental projects through their own revenues and participate effectively in the provision of regional and global public goods.

Countries with higher incomes and productivity can help provide social and environmental public goods, such as on ecological restoration and climate change.

Financial resources from donor countries should be directed toward economic public goods, rather social and environmental projects in low-income developing countries. This will prevent developing countries from becoming reliant on international aid for long periods and instead, encourage them to develop their own financial strength to pay for social and environmental goods. “Infrastructure deficits” in developing countries should be interpreted as being part of broader deficits of economic public goods. 

Picture of Fan Gang
Fan Gang

Director, National Economic Research Institute

Empowering Digital Future

Explore the transformative potential of digital technologies through the lens of a joint CAREC-PRC and ASEAN-PRC Digital Economy Workshop. Hear from policymakers as they share their experiences, challenges, and strategies for harnessing the power of the digital economy for inclusive growth and regional competitiveness.

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