The 14th five-year plan presents a unique opportunity for the PRC to transition toward a green, high-quality development path addressing social and environmental challenges that have emerged after decades of rapid growth. For more details, please read this blog.
Tag: Economics
How the People’s Republic of China Is Planning for a Greener, More Sustainable Future
The 14th five-year economic Plan presents a unique opportunity to transition toward high-quality development by addressing the social and environmental challenges that have emerged after decades of rapid growth.
Five-year plans have been instrumental in the socioeconomic transformation of the People’s Republic of China. Carefully designed as planning blueprints, each plan guides policy making for half a decade.
While the country’s greatest development achievements are associated with the successful process of reform launched in 1978, economic modernization started in the early 1950s. It was triggered by the First Plan (1953-1957), which established the industrial base that set the country on the path to development.
Improved connectivity was also key, and the First Plan fostered the construction of railways across the country. On a smaller scale, but with great impact on people’s daily life, the number of bicycles increased from 80 million to 1.2 billion in five years. While this achievement might appear simple at first sight, bicycles meant a lot to families. The greater mobility they brought about facilitated access to jobs, health care, and education, among other public services.
Plans are dynamic and change over time. Their focus is shaped by development milestones and emerging challenges. For instance, the most recent plans unleashed a decade of far-reaching structural reforms to promote sustainable inclusive growth.
The 12th Plan (2011-2015) paved the way for a consumption-oriented growth model where innovation-driven industrial policies gained prominence. The 13th Plan (2016-2020) introduced a second wave of market reforms and launched the concept of the ecological civilization, a green revolution backed by ambitious targets for environmental protection and climate change.
And this brings us to the 14th Plan, with high-quality and green development at its core. By emphasizing the importance of inclusive sustainable growth and a more sophisticated concept of personal well-being, the new plan is poised to be the most people-centered of all the plans to date. Having achieved upper-middle income status and eradicated extreme poverty, the People’s Republic of China can now place people’s well-being at the center of policymaking.
The 14th Plan presents a unique opportunity to transition toward high-quality development by addressing the social and environmental challenges that have emerged after decades of rapid growth. This transition requires greater efforts to deepen social inclusion and strengthen the environmental sustainability of the development model. The magnitude of the environmental challenges and the impacts of climate change imply that high-quality development under the 14th Plan must be green.
The country’s transition to a development model that emphasizes environmental sustainability and personal well-being, requires new steps in ongoing institutional reform. New policies and institutions could yield dramatic advances in the quality and sustainability of development.
Progress on institutional advancement is vital at the local level and in less-developed regions, where most of the efforts to support high-quality development will be delivered. New initiatives and policy actions to foster social inclusion and promote green development are a must to achieve the ambitious objectives laid down in the 14th Plan.
Tackling income inequality, a key objective of the 14th Plan, is critical to strengthen social inclusion. Rural areas suffer from limited access to public services including education, job opportunities, and health care. Narrowing the inequality gap requires actions to reduce the disparities in the environmental, social, and economic conditions to close the rural-urban divide.
Actions are also needed to mitigate the impact of the country’s rapid population aging, which is aggravated by the exodus to urban areas that leaves the most vulnerable behind. Income redistribution policies, including a more progressive taxation system, and strengthened social protection can ensure more inclusive growth for higher quality development during the new plan.
The 14th Plan builds on the remarkable environmental achievements of the previous plan and takes the country’s commitment to new heights by aligning its objectives with the government’s pledge to peak emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
These ambitious goals require innovative approaches to accelerate low carbon development, including the circular economy, smart infrastructure, and state-of-the-art clean energy interventions. Greater strides in green and blue finance will be instrumental to manage plastic waste for the sake of the ocean’s health, an area where the country can lead in the delivery of a vital public good to the world.
ADB will be doing its part to support the key priorities of the 14th Plan, particularly in the area of high-quality, green development. This includes promoting environmentally sustainable development and climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, as well as addressing other critical issues, such as an aging society and health security.
The 14th Plan can yield dramatic advances in the quality and sustainability of development in the People’s Republic of China. Given the country’s size, carbon footprint, and growing regional and global role, the plan’s success will resonate in the country and across the region and the world.
Authors
Yolanda Fernandez Lommen
Country Director, PRC Resident Mission, ADB
Marzia Mongiorgi Lorenzo
Principal Country Specialist, PRC Resident Mission, ADB
This blog is reproduced from Asian Development Blog.
Developing Modernization Indicators for the People’s Republic of China: Key Considerations and a Proposed Framework
Improved Borders Can Drive Broad Economic Benefits but Only If the Right Measures Are Taken
Making it easier for people and goods to cross borders has been clearly shown to provide widespread economic benefits. But countries on both sides need to be prepared to take advantage of the new opportunities created.
COVID-19 has closed many borders around the world and the sudden halt to the flow of travelers and workers has had a major impact on some economies. This has highlighted the economic importance of border points that allow goods and people to easily cross borders. This critical infrastructure has significant spillover impacts beyond the border and into the broader economy.
So how do you make the benefits of improved border crossings cascade across the economy?
In general, when a country makes an investment, jobs are created, the workers receive higher income, and they spend more. Then as suppliers see this higher demand, they recruit more workers and source inputs to meet this new demand. This ripple effect becomes even more significant as the workers of the suppliers also start buying more goods and services, and so on. These are indirect impacts.
This ripple effect can only be created at a border if it is open for goods and people to cross. This spillover effect is particularly strong when investments are close to the border points. Ample examples of such spillover effects can be found in the European Union (EU), where costs of crossing borders are low, and the overall economy has been shown to benefit as a result.
The extent of the spillover effect depends on various factors, among them how prepared the neighboring country is to benefit from this investment by being ready to serve the increased demand for inputs and labor.
Experience in the EU suggest that border crossing spillover effects are unevenly distributed among countries and types of labor. In the case of the EU countries, both high-skilled and medium-skilled labor is impacted most, whereas low-skilled labor is mostly generated outside the EU because wages are lower there.
Asia also has a long history of infrastructure investments in border areas. For example, an ADB infrastructure investment project is being planned on the Inner Mongolia side of the People’s Republic of China’s border with Mongolia. The investment program aims to improve border crossing points and is designed partly to allow Mongolia to benefit from the investment. Direct benefits of the investment include 1,300 new jobs for Mongolians at border municipalities such as the Erenhot economic zone.
The spillover effects include additional employment providing an economic boost on the Mongolian side of the border that provides families more income for health care, education, and other necessities. This then prompts the suppliers to produce more to meet the higher demand. This could result in 40% more output and more than double the employment, according to our research.
In order to fully realize both direct and indirect benefits from border investment opportunities, the adjacent benefiting country will have to be ready to absorb the benefits.
As great as this sounds, one significant caveat is that it all assumes that Mongolia will source all the additional demand for goods and services domestically to fully benefit from the investment. This assumption, however, can be easily challenged. In reality, Mongolia may have to source inputs from other countries due to the limited supply domestically.
Since Mongolia is significantly dependent on import and export activities with its close neighbors, the People’s Republic of China and Russian Federation, the expected economic boost may leak as Mongolia imports inputs. Some of Mongolia’s economic sectors are importing a large share of their inputs – more than 40% of inputs are imported in mining, transportation, and construction sectors.
In this case, most of the additional income would be spent abroad, or the additional employment would be sourced from abroad—most likely the People’s Republic of China and Russian Federation. The same analysis suggests that the indirect spillover benefit of the Inner Mongolia project to Mongolia could be much lower, with the gross output change scaled back by 4% and the employment by 9%.
An example of where receiving areas have the capacity to maximize the spillover benefits can be found in the Greater Mekong region, where the benefits were found to be the highest when the projects connected large cities, e.g. the Southern Corridor that includes three large economies—Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Phnom Penh—along its relatively short length (about 900 kilometers), which have better absorptive capacity to respond to the new demand for inputs and labor.
For Mongolia to replicate this success along its border with the People’s Republic of China, policy makers should consider public investment in transportation and storage infrastructure that will support logistics operators and suppliers. In this regard, ongoing efforts with ADB to modernize logistic facilities in Zamyn-Uud economic zone are encouraging, particularly as this is across from the Erenhot economic zone and the main gateway for Mongolia’s trade with the People’s Republic of China and other parts of the world.
Despite this progress, Mongolia’s relatively high wage levels remain a bottleneck and need to be addressed by matching the required skill types and levels to those in the neighboring countries.
An important takeaway is that the extent of benefit an investment project in one country brings to a neighboring country depends also on the absorptive capacity. The gains are not automatic. Even when the project is designed to benefit the other country, the maximum benefit would not be always achieved.
In order to fully realize both direct and indirect benefits from border investment opportunities, the adjacent benefiting country will have to be ready to absorb the benefits by developing its own input markets and human capital. In particular, its limited infrastructure and the seasonality of many inputs combined with a poor storage capability make it challenging to establish a reliable supply chain.
Author
Akiko Terada-Hagiwara
Principal Economist, East Asia Department, ADB
This blog is reproduced from Asian Development Blog.
