ADB Forecasts Resilient GDP Growth in the PRC in 2026, a Pick Up in Inflation

MANILA, PHILIPPINES (10 April 2026) — Economic growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is projected to moderate to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, while inflation is expected to edge up amid higher global energy prices and external uncertainty, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026, released today by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The PRC economy expanded by 5.0% in 2025, supported by strong exports and resilient industrial activity. However, subdued household consumption and a prolonged downturn in the property sector are expected to weigh on growth. Exports and government investment in strategic and high-tech sectors are projected to remain key near-term growth drivers, partly offsetting weak domestic consumption and uncertainty in external demand due to the conflict in the Middle East.

“Exports, investment in advanced manufacturing and services are expected to continue supporting growth, but reviving household consumption will be critical for sustaining momentum,” said ADB Country Director for the PRC Asif S. Cheema. “Policies that strengthen income prospects, social protection, and consumer confidence will play an important role in supporting domestic consumption. We also need to continue monitoring the macroeconomic implications of the Middle East conflict.”

Inflation is forecast to rise to 0.6% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, from 0.0% in 2025, reflecting rising food costs and other factors, such as anti-involution efforts and higher global energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict.

Fiscal policy is expected to remain supportive, with greater emphasis on social spending. Monetary policy is also projected to stay accommodative to support growth, particularly in services consumption and strategic sectors.

Downside risks to the outlook have increased. If global energy prices remain elevated and supply chain disruptions persist, this could dent growth through higher energy costs, supply chain and trade disruptions, tighter financial conditions, and weaker investment and consumption sentiment. Additional upward pressures on production costs and a worsened business environment stemming from a prolonged Middle East conflict could weigh on corporate profitability, employment, and private investment and consumption sentiment.

ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific. Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members—50 from the region. 

How Will the Conflict in the Middle East Affect Economies in Asia and the Pacific?

Surging energy costs hurt household incomes, raise manufacturing and logistics costs, stoke inflation, and weigh on economic growth. IADE-Michoko

Surging fuel prices and disruption to shipping risk widespread fallout across the region, but policymakers should resist market intervention in favor of support measures for vulnerable groups.

Geopolitical risk is again at the center of the global economic outlook. While Asia and the Pacific has limited direct trade exposure to Iran and neighboring countries, it could still face significant adverse economic consequences. Disruptions in the Middle East can ripple out to Asian economies through multiple channels. Policymakers across the region should be prepared to respond to potential shocks to energy prices, trade flows, and financial conditions.

Historically, conflicts in the Middle East have affected the global economy primarily through oil supply disruptions. Today, the risks are broader. The current crisis highlights vulnerabilities not only in energy production but also in global transport networks for oil, gas, goods, and people.

The Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with global markets—plays a crucial role in global energy trade. Around 20% of globally traded oil and liquefied natural gas passes through it, and roughly 80% of those shipments ultimately head to Asia. This means that even partial disruptions can have significant consequences for economies in the region.

Shipping data indicate that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply as companies reassess security risks. Insurance costs for ships have risen. Freight rates for transporting crude oil from the Middle East to Asia have increased significantly.

For Asian economies that depend heavily on maritime trade—both for importing energy and exporting manufactured goods—such disruptions can quickly raise costs across entire supply chains.

The most immediate economic impact, however, is likely to occur through energy prices. Asia is the world’s largest energy-importing region, with net oil and natural gas imports exceeding 2% of GDP in several economies. Even moderate increases in global energy prices can translate into sizable economic losses.

Net oil and gas imports as a share of GDP (%, average 2022-24), Asia and the Pacific

Note: Data refers to the sum of HS Code 2709 (crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals) and HS Code 2711 (petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons, including natural gas and liquefied petroleum gases [LPG]). Net imports are calculated as the difference between imports and exports, and expressed as a share of GDP in current US dollars. Sources: ADB staff calculations using data from the CEPII-BACI dataset; World Bank. World Development Indicators online database.

Attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and concerns about disruptions to shipping routes have already pushed energy prices higher. Between 28 February and 9 March, Brent crude oil prices surged by about 45%, with natural gas prices also spiking sharply.

Higher energy prices affect economies in several ways. For households, rising fuel and electricity costs reduce purchasing power. For businesses, higher transport and production costs squeeze profit margins. For central banks and governments, the challenge becomes managing inflation and fiscal sustainability without undermining economic growth.

Geopolitical shocks also affect financial markets. Periods of uncertainty typically lead investors to seek safe-haven assets, strengthening the US dollar and tightening global financial conditions.

Daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (1 January to 5 March 2026)

Source: IMF Portwatch.

For many Asian economies, this creates additional challenges. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar can increase the domestic currency cost of energy imports. At the same time, tighter global financial conditions—including through widening sovereign spreads—can raise borrowing costs and reduce capital inflows, particularly in more vulnerable emerging markets.

Not all economies in Asia face the same level of risk. Large energy-importing economies—including the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, Japan, and the Republic of Korea—are particularly exposed because of their heavy dependence on imported crude oil. The PRC alone imports around 11 million barrels of oil per day, making it the world’s largest oil importer.

Some smaller economies dependent on fossil fuel imports may be even more vulnerable because of relatively high macroeconomic sensitivity. Countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand rely heavily on imported energy, and rising oil prices can quickly translate into higher inflation and pressure on current accounts and exchange rates.

Exposure alone does not determine vulnerability. The availability of emergency oil stocks, commonly referred to as Strategic Petroleum Reserves, materially affects how long economies can cushion an energy supply disruption. Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the PRC have several months of reserves, while India’s reserves are somewhat less. Tourism-dependent economies such as Maldives, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Pacific economies may face additional risks if aviation disruptions persist. Airspace closures across parts of the Middle East have already forced airlines to reroute flights, potentially affecting tourism flows and air cargo shipments.

The overall economic impact will depend on how the conflict evolves. If tensions remain contained and major shipping routes stay open, the economic effects may be limited mainly to higher energy prices and increased market volatility.

However, a more severe escalation—particularly one involving prolonged disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz—could have more significant consequences. Sustained disruptions could push oil prices much higher, weaken global trade, and slow economic growth.

The policy response should focus on stabilization rather than suppressing price signals. Shielding consumers from higher domestic energy costs through price controls or subsidies could distort market incentives and undermine the efficient allocation of resources. To protect vulnerable groups, targeted support is needed.

Central banks should prioritize reducing excessive swings in exchange rates and liquidity provision before tightening monetary policy aggressively, especially where inflationary pressures originate externally. Premature or excessive policy tightening could suppress growth and exacerbate financial volatility.

Governments can also play a role by monitoring early warning signs—such as shipping costs, aviation disruptions, and financial market volatility—that may signal deeper economic stress.

Economies in Asia and the Pacific have shown remarkable resilience to global shocks in recent years. To better withstand new challenges caused by the current conflict in the Middle East, it will be critical to strengthen energy security, diversify supply chains, and maintain sound macroeconomic policies.

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Albert Park

Chief Economist and Director General, Economic Research and Development Impact Department (ERDI)

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Matteo Lanzafame

Director, ADB Macroeconomics Research Division, Economic Research and Development Impact Department

Reproduced from Development Asia.

The PRC Vice Minister Liao Outlines Key Perspectives for High‑Quality Development at RKSI Seminar

Vice Minister of Finance of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Liao Min outlined key perspectives on high‑quality growth at a seminar held at ADB Headquarters in Manila on 9 April 2026.

The seminar, organized by RKSI on the topic of “Beyond the Horizon—the PRC’s Economy and Regional Prosperity”, saw the Vice Minister delivering a keynote speech and appearing on a panel alongside ADB Vice-President Scott Morris and ADB Chief Economic Albert Park. The event attracted around 400 ADB staff and members of the Board of Directors, including more than 100 online participants.

In his keynote speech, Mr. Liao appreciated ADB’s role over the last 40 years in promoting economic and social development in the PRC, and highlighted that the PRC has been a strong supporter of ADB in fulfilling its mandate and mission. Standing at the new starting point following four decades of partnership, the PRC and ADB should explore new areas of cooperation and further deepen their comprehensive, mutually beneficial collaboration.

Turning to the seminar’s main theme, he emphasized that “High quality means sustainability.” The PRC’s total economic output exceeded RMB140 trillion last year, Mr. Liao said. Although economic growth remained moderate, the PRC’s contribution to global economic growth remained about 30%. He said the PRC is continuously optimizing its economic structure while promoting green and low-carbon development, digital transformation, increased consumption, and expanded effective investment.

“Consumption is the leading engine of the PRC’s economic growth,” he said. “In order to further unleash the domestic consumption potential, the Chinese government has put more domestic consumption as the priority of our rebalancing efforts.”

He said the PRC’s imports reached RMB18.5 trillion (about $2.6 trillion) in 2025, making the PRC the world’s second-largest import market for the 17th straight year, after the US. The PRC also saw its imports grow from more than 130 countries and regions and is now the major export destination for nearly 80 economies. “PRC has a vast market of 1.4 billion people, including 400 million middle-class consumers. This number is expected to reach 800 million in the next decade, which will bring more imports of goods and services to the PRC,” he said.

The value added to the economy of the PRC’s green industry is about RMB12.5 trillion (about $1.8 trillion), up by 11.6% year on year and contributing to 21.5% of economic growth, he said.

The recently released 15th Five-Year Plan includes 20 major targets, eight of which are binding. Among these eight, five are green and low-carbon development targets. These tough targets demonstrate PRC’s firm commitment to a green transition and building a Beautiful China. At the same time, digitalization is making traditional industries more efficient.

Meanwhile, technological innovation is paving the way for transformation. He mentioned that PRC is accelerating the implementation of its innovation‑driven development strategy, with total factor productivity maintaining steady growth. 

Mr. Liao underscored that, as the world’s second‑largest economy, the PRC generates significant economic spillovers. He reaffirmed that PRC would remain focused on managing its own affairs well while continuing to advance high‑level opening‑up, thereby injecting greater certainty and stability into the global economy.

“The four major initiatives on development, security, civilization, and global governance, along with the vision of a community with a shared future for mankind proposed by President Xi Jinping, clearly illustrate PRC’s approach to international engagement, including our cooperation with ADB and its members—past, present, and future,” Mr. Liao concluded.

CARTIF: A Potential Catalyst for Cross-Border Trade and Investment in the CAREC Region

Better facilitation of cross-border trade and investment can generate significant economic gains for CAREC countries. Photo credit: ADB.

Introduction

On 20 November 2025, the 24th Ministerial Conference of the CAREC Program[1] adopted the Bishkek Declaration officially launching negotiations on the CAREC Trade and Investment Facilitation Partnership Agreement (CARTIF). This marked an important milestone in CAREC countries’ efforts to advance regional economic cooperation and integration in trade and investment.

CARTIF builds on more than 2 decades of collaboration under the CAREC Program, including progress achieved through CAREC Strategy 2030 and the CAREC Integrated Trade Agenda 2030, as well as the implementation of international agreements and conventions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement. It aims to establish an inclusive, transparent, and flexible regional economic partnership to facilitate cross-border trade and investment.

Trade and Investment Flows in the CAREC Region

Recent trends in cross-border trade and investment flows in the CAREC region have been mixed. Between 2015 and 2024, intraregional merchandise exports more than doubled in absolute terms. However, intraregional trade remained roughly unchanged at around 6% as a share of CAREC countries’ total merchandise trade with the world (Figure 1).

Source: UNCTADstat Data Centre (accessed 21 November 2025; authors’ calculations).

Trends in cross-border investment flows have varied across the countries. Between 2015 and 2024, net foreign direct investment inflows increased in Mongolia, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan but declined in most other CAREC countries (Figure 2).

Source: World Development Indicators database (accessed 21 November 2025).

According to the Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index, CAREC countries’ trade and investment integration score rose from 0.15 in 2006 to 0.17 in 2022. It nevertheless remained below the score of several other regional groupings, including the Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Cooperation Program and the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Initiative (Figure 3).

CAREC = Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, EU = European Union, GMS = Greater Mekong Subregion, SASEC = South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation. Note: The data are for the Trade and Investment dimension of the Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index (ARCII). ARCII scores range from 0 (no integration) to 1 (full integration). Source: ARCII database (accessed 21 November 2025).

There is still substantial untapped potential for expanding mutually beneficial trade and investment across borders in the CAREC region. Three earlier CAREC studies that informed the CARTIF concept[2] identify a range of persistent barriers to cross-border trade and investment flows in the region, including (i) tariffs and nontariff measures on trade in goods, (ii) differences in service market regulations, (iii) limited recognition of standards and conformity assessments, (iv) restrictions on the movement of businesspeople and service providers, and (v) various domestic obstacles that increase costs and uncertainty for traders and investors. Hence, tariffs are not addressed by CARTIF’s Initial Protocols because they warrant a gradual/differentiated approach.

Complementary evidence from the CAREC study on transit trade facilitation in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, and from the ADB study on trade and transport facilitation along CAREC corridors, highlights persistent legal, regulatory, institutional, and infrastructure-related barriers that impede transit trade in the three countries and constrain international shipments along the corridors. Together, these findings point to the need for increased efforts by CAREC countries to reduce remaining barriers to cross-border trade and investment. The empirical assessment of different configurations of a CAREC free trade agreement further indicates that enhanced facilitation of cross-border trade and investment can generate considerable economic gains for CAREC countries, particularly for landlocked economies.

CARTIF as a Legal Framework for Regional Cooperation in Trade and Investment Facilitation

CARTIF is intended to serve as a legal framework for closer cooperation among CAREC countries in cross-border trade and investment facilitation. It covers a broad range of policy areas related to the movement of goods, services, and capital across borders.

CARTIF has both WTO-plus features—enhanced collaboration in areas already covered by the WTO agreements, such as trade facilitation, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical barriers to trade, and trade in services—and WTO-extra elements that involve topics not comprehensively covered under the current WTO agreements, such as investment facilitation, digital trade, and supply chain connectivity. By bringing this broad agenda into a single framework, CARTIF reflects the growing nexus between cross-border trade and investment and the need for coherent, mutually reinforcing reforms.

A key feature of CARTIF is its flexible, modular design. Under the draft text, a binding Framework Agreement, together with a set of Initial Protocols, is to form a single undertaking that applies to all participating countries once in force. Additional protocols may be negotiated later by interested parties, allowing cooperation to deepen gradually. Accordingly, CARTIF allows countries to engage at a pace consistent with their national priorities and levels of readiness. This approach mirrors relevant international experience, including the “ASEAN Minus X” formula, elements of open regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and the balance between ambition and flexibility embodied in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

CARTIF is to develop an institutional mechanism, which will be agreed by the CAREC governments. The preliminary proposed structure includes a Ministerial Council, a Senior Officials Council, a Regional Trade and Investment Committee, and a Secretariat. These bodies are intended to support the implementation, administration, facilitation, monitoring and evaluation, and further development of CARTIF.

CARTIF is also to have a transparent, rule-based dispute settlement mechanism, emphasizing consultation and mutual agreement, with additional procedures available if issues remain unresolved. Decisions issued under this mechanism are to be binding on the parties concerned.

The Way Ahead

Negotiations on CARTIF are expected to commence in early 2026. For these negotiations to be successful, active engagement by the governments of CAREC countries—as well as strong and sustained support from other key stakeholders, including the private sector and development partners—will be essential. Additional analytical work and capacity building can help officials navigate the technical complexities involved and identify mutually beneficial solutions to issues associated with cross-border trade and investment facilitation.

If successfully concluded and enacted, CARTIF can become a major catalyst for the expansion of cross-border trade and investment in the CAREC region. It would support the development of regional value chains and production networks, promote economic diversification, and boost shared prosperity in the region.

Resources

Bishkek Ministerial Declaration on the Launch of Negotiations on the CAREC Trade and Investment Facilitation Partnership Agreement.

Draft Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Trade and Investment Facilitation Partnership Agreement.

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Bahodir Ganiev

Senior Advisor, Center for Economic Development, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

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Lyaziza Sabyrova

Regional Head, Regional Cooperation and Integration Unit, Central and West Asia Department, Asian Development Bank

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Zulfia Khamitovna Karimova

Principal Regional Cooperation Specialist, Central and West Asia Department, Asian Development Bank

Reproduced from Development Asia.

MCDF Connectivity Investment Conference on Green and Efficient Ports

The conference organized in Beijing on 3-5 December 2025, aims to explore port sector trends, case studies, lessons learned, and cutting-edge solutions to pressing challenges in the areas of sustainability, digital transformation, operational efficiency, and financing. Around 120 participants from 19 developing countries engaged in active discussions, presented challenges in green port standards, digitalization, and legislation they have been addressing and received practical feedback.

RKSI supported representatives from ADB introduced the Green Ports Toolkit Development, and shared the experiences from ADB’s Anhui Province Green Port and Shipping Demonstration Project.

The 9th CAREC Think Tank Development Forum and Tianshan Forum on Central Asia Economic Cooperation

The 9th CAREC Think Tank Development Forum themed “Accelerating Transformative Effect of Green Initiatives through Innovative Financing Mechanisms in the CAREC Region,” it aims to foster meaningful policy dialogue, facilitate knowledge exchange, and advance the green transition in the CAREC region through innovative financing solutions. The forum featured key aspects of the green transition, including innovative financing models, green banking, sustainable lending practices, and climate finance. It brought together over 150 participants from government, international organizations, the private sector, think tanks, and academia. The experts shared diverse insights on how financial institutions can mobilize capital for sustainable development and highlighted the critical role of international donors in supporting climate finance.

The Tianshan Forum for Central Asia Economic Cooperation focused on “Unlocking Connectivity and Investment in Central Asia.” It is dedicated to catalyzing investment in the CAREC region by fostering policy dialogue, knowledge sharing, and strong stakeholder collaboration. Lan Fo’an, Minister of Finance of the PRC and Yingming Yang, Vice President of ADB delivered opening remarks. Aiming Zhou, Deputy Country Director of ADB PRC Resident Mission delivered keynote speeches. The forum brought together over 380 participants, including senior government officials, representatives of international organizations, financial institutions, and the private sector, and experts from think tanks and academic institutions.

The two events are organized in Urumqi on 1 December and 2-3 December 2025 respectively. 

Resilient Together: Strengthening the Caucasus and Central Asia Through Regional Cooperation

Modern transport corridors are transforming connectivity across the Caucasus and Central Asia, paving the way for stronger regional trade and economic resilience. Photo: ADB<

Key Takeaways

Despite heightened global uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions, the Caucasus and Central Asia have continued to surprise on the upside. Growth in the subregion, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, has averaged about 5.5% during 2022–24, exceeding expectations and outpacing most emerging markets. This strong growth momentum has been fueled by robust domestic demand, buoyant remittances, spillovers from trade diversion in recent years, and high commodity prices—particularly for hydrocarbons and gold.

But this strength has also brought risks: most economies are now operating above potential (Figure 1), inflation remains elevated, and rapid credit expansion is adding to demand pressures—clear signs of overheating and limited room for policy maneuver. This highlights both the strength of the subregion’s rebound and the limits of its current growth model. 

The challenge now is to sustain this progress—and that will not be easy. Fiscal buffers are narrowing as infrastructure and social spending rise, while strong credit growth and still-high import demand are straining external balances. At the same time, weaker global demand and ongoing fragmentation are reshaping trade and investment flows.

Despite recent gains, the subregion remains only partially connected to global and regional markets. Intraregional trade still accounts for less than 5% of subregional GDP (Figure 2), and persistent gaps in infrastructure, logistics, and regulatory alignment continue to constrain competitiveness.

To turn today’s gains into lasting prosperity, countries will need to pivot from demand-driven to productivity-led growth—accelerating reforms that strengthen governance, boost private investment, and deepen economic and financial integration. These reforms, anchored in stronger regional cooperation and sound domestic policies, will form the two pillars of sustained resilience and opportunity for the decade ahead.

Regional Integration and Domestic Policies

Resilience in the Caucasus and Central Asia rests on two mutually reinforcing pillars—deeper regional cooperation and integration and sound domestic macroeconomic and structural policies.

Deeper regional integration offers one of the most powerful avenues for sustaining growth and resilience. Stronger links in trade, transport, finance, and energy can help countries diversify markets, attract investment, and cushion external shocks. The potential is significant: intraregional trade, though increasing in recent years, remains modest compared with other emerging regions. Removing barriers—such as weak infrastructure, regulatory fragmentation, and limited institutional capacity—would generate large efficiency and resilience gains. 

Collective investments in regional public goods, including modern transport corridors, cross-border energy and payment systems, harmonized standards, and digital connectivity, would raise competitiveness and expand the subregion’s collective capacity to respond to shocks.

But integration alone is not enough—it must be underpinned by strong domestic policies and structural reforms. Countries need credible medium-term fiscal frameworks, independent monetary and financial institutions, and sound governance to maintain stability and investor confidence. 

Structural reforms should focus on boosting productivity and diversifying production toward higher value-added goods and services, improving firms’ ability to participate in and move up global value chains. Policies that enhance innovation, upgrade skills, and improve infrastructure and logistics will be key to raising competitiveness and attracting investment. With these foundations in place, regional integration can become a lasting source of inclusive and sustainable growth.

A New Era for Regional Cooperation

Regional cooperation in the Caucasus and Central Aisa is gaining new momentum. Once driven largely by external partners, integration is now increasingly championed by the countries themselves. Intraregional nonenergy trade more than doubled between 2017 and 2023, while landmark projects such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC)–Kyrgyz Republic–Uzbekistan railway and new cross-border water-sharing agreements are advancing. 

The “C5+1” platforms with major partners—which provide opportunities for interaction among the five Central Asian nations and partners including the United States, the European Union, Japan, and PRC—have deepened dialogue and coordination, giving the subregion a more unified voice in global forums. These developments mark a shift from discussion to delivery, though progress remains uneven and require sustained political and institutional commitment.

Turning this momentum into lasting economic transformation will require strong institutional anchors and well-functioning regional platforms. Initiatives such as the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) program can help translate dialogue into tangible outcomes—facilitating investment, harmonizing standards, and fostering cross-border knowledge sharing. Development partners can play an important complementary role by providing financing, technical assistance, and serving as trusted conveners for sustained policy coordination.

Empirical analysis underscores the large untapped potential of integration. According to the International Monetary Fund’s gravity-model estimates, Caucasus and Central Asian countries trade between 15% and 20% below their potential, and intraregional trade remains roughly 14% below what fundamentals would predict. The subregion’s export basket also remains heavily concentrated in low-value commodities, with limited participation in global value chains. 

Yet, the payoff from reforms could be substantial: closing just one-fifth of the policy and infrastructure gaps with advanced economies could raise exports by 60–80% and GDP by 6–10 percentage points over the course of five to seven years—with the effects more pronounced in landlocked countries. 

To realize this promise, the next phase of cooperation must focus on deepening trade facilitation, reducing non-tariff barriers, upgrading infrastructure, and aligning regulations. Equally important, domestic reforms are needed to enhance competitiveness—by improving the business climate, investing in innovation, and supporting higher-value production that can move Caucasus and Central Asian economies up the global value chain. Regional initiatives on logistics corridors, digital connectivity, and energy networks can then amplify these domestic efforts, turning geography into an asset rather than a constraint.

For the Caucasus and Central Asia, regional cooperation is not optional—it is essential. Sound macroeconomic management must go hand-in-hand with integration to sustain growth, preserve stability, and build resilience. In a world of recurring disruptions—from frequent extreme weather events and disasters to global fragmentation—collective action offers the most effective path to shared prosperity. By coupling credible domestic reforms with a new era of regional connectivity, Caucasus and Central Asian countries can transform today’s momentum into tomorrow’s opportunity.

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Yingming Yang

Vice-President (South, Central and West Asia), ADB

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Bo Li

Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Reproduced from ADB.org

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