Asia’s Eating Habits are Changing and the Environmental Impact Could be Huge

These charts illustrate the environmental impact of agriculture in Asia and the need to move toward sustainable and healthy diets that are also environmentally friendly and affordable.

The critical role of agriculture to Asia and the Pacific’s development can hardly be overstated. In the 1960s, food supply was a severe problem with most economies in the region struggling to feed their growing population. Many economies depended on food aid, while shortages and speculation prompted food crises in a few others.

The adoption of green revolution technologies in the 1960s increased agriculture productivity and not only allowed the region to meet increasing food demand, but also release labor to contribute towards vibrant manufacturing and services sectors.

In 2018, daily calorie intake per capita in the region, which is now home to more than half of the world’s population, had increased from 1245 kilo calories (kcal) in 1961 to 1914 kcal. Despite this progress, different forms of undernourishment such as stunting and wasting of children persists, even as obesity is rising in many parts of the region.

Today agriculture in the region faces a different kind of food supply challenge. Higher incomes and increasingly urban lifestyles have changed the needs and preferences of consumers. Instead of a diet heavy on traditional staples such as rice and wheat, consumers today prefer a more diverse diet. Per capita consumption of rice has leveled off; while that of fruit, vegetables, eggs, dairy products, as well as meat and seafood is increasing.

Although the consumption of cereals in developing countries in Asia increased between 1961 and 2018, its overall share in the diet decreased. The share for meat and animal products increased from 1% to 4%. This represents a more than six-fold increase in protein intake from animal meat from 1.5 grams to 10 grams per person per day. Still, this is well below the 34.6 grams average in advanced economies outside of the region.

In the PRC daily calorie intake more than doubled between 1961 to 2018, reaching 3205 kcal in 2018. Cereals only make up 46% of the diet, while the share of meat and animal products increased from a mere 3% in 1961 to 21% in 2018. This represents a 20-fold increase in per capita intake from 1.1 grams in 1961 to 19.7 grams in 2018.

To meet these changing food preferences, agriculture in the region will have to reorient from a traditional focus on the production of food staples to high-value crops such as fruit and vegetables, as well as livestock and aquaculture. This will mean a more resource-intensive production as well as rising greenhouse gases. As figure 3 shows, animal-based products have a much larger resource footprint, especially with regard to greenhouse gas emissions and water use.

To reduce the environmental impact of agriculture, it is important to move toward sustainable and healthy diets that are also socially acceptable and economically accessible for all. Some ways to achieve this are to promote mostly plant-based diets, reduce red meat consumption, promote fish obtained from sustainable stocks, and reduce food loss and waste throughout the supply chain.

This blog post is based on data from the recently published Asian Development Outlook Update 2021 Theme ChapterTransforming Agriculture in Asia.

Author
Picture of Manisha Pradhananga

Manisha Pradhananga

Economist, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB

Picture of Daryll Naval

Daryll Naval

Research Associate, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB

This blog is reproduced from Asian Development Blog.

How to Meet Climate Targets with Carbon Capture and Storage

The Asia and Pacific region is responsible for about half of global carbon emissions. Photo credit: ADB.

With the PRC and Indonesia as centers of excellence, a regional program demonstrates how the technology can reduce carbon intensity.

Overview

The PRC and Indonesia produce copious amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), mainly because their power generation systems are hugely dependent on fossil fuels. The two countries’ carbon emissions are among the highest in the world, and both are keen on becoming carbon neutral as part of their commitments to the Paris Agreement.

Since the turn of the millennium, the PRC and Indonesia have been exploring ways to decarbonize their economies. But much still needs to be done in terms of coordinating oversight for research and development and scaling up deployment of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies.

In 2019, ADB completed a technical assistance to support the PRC and Indonesia in improving their capacity for CCS research and development. Financed by the ADB-administered Carbon Capture and Storage Fund under the Clean Energy Financing Partnership Facility, the CCS program’s objective is to create a stronger strategic architecture and more coordinated research and development for accelerating and scaling up CCS development and deployment, as well as dissemination of best practices on CCS in Asia. The project under review initially concentrated on PRC and Indonesia and later on expanded its activities to Bangladesh, India, Mongolia, and Viet Nam.

Project information

48282-001: Promoting Carbon Capture and Storage in the People’s Republic of China and Indonesia

Project snapshot

      • Approval date: August 2014
      • Closing date: August 2019
      • Total project cost: $3.3 million. Total financing from the Carbon Capture and Storage Fund under ADB’s Clean Energy Financing Partnership Facility
      • Executing agency: Asian Development Bank
      • Financing: 
        • Global Carbon Capture
        • Storage Institute, United Kingdom

Challenges

The PRC is among the world’s largest consumers of coal, accounting for over half of global consumption. Its power generation sector uses more than half of that coal to provide about 80% of the country’s electricity and emits over 4 gigatons of CO2 (GtCO2) per year, 95% from coal-fired power generation. Continued economic growth is projected to drive energy consumption surges for the next several decades. With primary energy coming from coal and the expectation that this reliance on coal will persist for decades to come, PRC will likely continue as one of the world’s largest CO2 emitters for some time. Therefore, wide deployment of CCS in PRC over the long term will be necessary to significantly reduce national emissions. The PRC has announced it would become carbon neutral by 2060 at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020.

Similarly, Indonesia has a heavily fossil fuels-based economy, consuming coal, oil, and gas produced domestically plus imported petroleum. As the world’s largest coal exporter and a substantial liquefied natural gas exporter, the country is confronted by increasing CO2 emissions from growing domestic consumption of indigenous coal and fossil fuels. It has significant requirements for the deployment of large-scale, low-carbon technology in the long term. Moreover, the government has been increasingly vocal about climate change and its impacts on the developing world.

Both the PRC and Indonesia have been considering the creation of legal and regulatory frameworks for advancing CCS.

Context

The Asia and Pacific region is responsible for about half of global CO2 emissions. Primary energy demand in the region is expected to increase by about 24% by 2030. Despite the rapid increase in renewable energy supply, trends suggest that this increase in demand will still translate into increased consumption of fossil fuels and CO2 emissions in the region. The PRC and India accounted for 27% and 7% of the global CO2 emissions in 2017.

While experiencing rapid growth and development, Asia and Pacific remains one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. It faces the risk of losing its development gains to climate change impacts if mitigation and adaptation actions are not put in place.

CCS is identified as one of the technologies and practices that can help meet climate targets. The International Energy Agency’s Carbon Capture and Storage Roadmap highlighted the significant role that CCS will need to play in achieving an atmospheric CO2 concentration stabilization of 450 ppm (parts per million) by 2050. CCS will provide about 14% of the total CO2 emissions reductions out to 2050. Achieving this contribution of emissions reductions will require an ambitious CCS growth-path, with 100 projects needed globally by 2020 and over 3,000 by 2050. In both 2020 and 2050, major developing countries, including Indonesia and the PRC, will need to contribute to CCS deployment.

Solutions

ADB’s technical assistance, approved in 2014, initiated a support program for CCS research and development (R&D) with the institutes in PRC and Indonesia serving as centers of excellence.

The CCS program was administered by ADB to assist in the establishment of the research centers in the PRC and in Indonesia. They are expected to act as local knowledge hubs in this emerging technology. The CCS centers are to implement R&D programs on CCS technologies in the region and organize activities to develop the capacity to enable widespread deployment in both countries and in the region.

Other program activities included conferences, workshops, dialogues, study visits, and other initiatives to foster regional cooperation, establish new partnerships with other institutes in and outside the region, and strengthen leadership in CCS-related capacity development.

Results

The CSS program established three research centers to improve R&D activity on CCS in Guangdong and Shanghai in the PRC and Bandung as well as Jakarta in Indonesia.

Under the CCS program, the activities of these research centers help the host countries adopt CCS technology, create necessary regulations, and obtain financial access for developing projects. They are also expected to foster regional cooperation on these aspects and build capacity in the PRC and Indonesia.

The program also started exploring CCS as a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emission for hard-to-decarbonize industries in the steel, cement, and petrochemical sectors. It produced a background study to help prepare industries for decarbonization by utilizing and not just storing captured carbon. The paper also investigates the financing requirements and mechanisms, as well as policy drivers and recommendations, to advance readiness to shift to a low-carbon era.

The CCS program bridged the gap between policy, technology, and finance mechanisms, and supported the development of demonstration of CCS projects in Indonesia. It expanded activities beyond the PRC and Indonesia and explored possibilities of implementing carbon capture, utilization, and storage in Bangladesh, India, Mongolia, and Viet Nam, creating an opportunity for further engaging these countries.

Lessons

The CSS program offers the following lessons:

Local knowledge and capacity building are important.

Support to research centers should include capacity building to ensure that they are well-equipped to successfully carry out studies and demonstration projects that will pave the way for the deployment of large-scale technologies. More experts are needed to enhance local capacities in developing and implementing demonstration projects, especially in countries that have indicated continued high dependence on fossil fuels to sustain their economic growth.

Ensure government and other stakeholders’ participation. 

Government involvement was found to be critical for the sustainable operation of the research centers, especially in the implementation of large-scale demonstration projects. Future programs supporting these centers should involve government and important stakeholders in their operation right from the start. Coordination with national and local governments, in addition to financial, technical, and administrative requirements, is critical in demonstrating large-scale projects.

Partnerships can be beneficial. 

Partnership with organizations from various disciplines have enhanced information and knowledge sharing, which is important in advancing R&D and deployment of technologies.

Author
Picture of Kee-Yung Nam

Kee-Yung Nam

Principal Energy Economist, Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB

This blog is reproduced from Development Asia.

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Greening Development in the PRC: A Dynamic Partnership with ADB

These Policies Will Put the PRC on the Path to a Green Economic Recovery

The pandemic is an opportunity for the PRC to develop “greener” policies.

To rebuild greener and address climate challenges, the PRC should “green” its investments, financing tools and fiscal spending while at the same time developing a robust monitoring and evaluation framework.

Thanks to strict virus containment measures and an array of supportive monetary and fiscal policies, the PRC rebounded quickly from the shock of the pandemic. The country’s fiscal and monetary stimulus policies to mitigate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the economy have amounted to $2.3 trillion, or 16.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of August 2021. The economy is now forecast to grow 8.1% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022.

The government’s policy priorities must move from rescue to the recovery mode, from short-term stabilization measures to long-term economic recovery. In addition to rescue measures, the government announced recovery measures amounting to around $407 billion. However, the “green” share of the recovery spending – that which is likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce air pollution and/or strengthen natural capital – only reached 12%, which was comparatively low compared to those of countries such as Canada (75%), Germany (47%), and France (38%).

The PRC already has ambitious long-term targets on environment and climate, such as peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality before 2060. Ensuring these targets are met requires policies that address climate challenges to ensure a green recovery from the COVID-19 shock.

At the same time, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development research shows that well-designed green stimulus measures can bring critical economic and environmental benefits. Also, thanks to falling technology costs, which enable more choices of green investments, green measures would support the economy and employment more strongly than in recovery from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

The PRC already has ambitious long-term targets on environment and climate.

Rebuilding greener requires the following policy actions:

Align public investment with long-term environmental goals. 

To boost public infrastructure development and to support economic recovery, the quota for new local government special bonds reached CNY3.75 trillion in 2020 and CNY3.65 trillion in 2021. This significant financial support to public infrastructure highlights the opportunity to allocate public resources toward sectors supporting the environment, such as renewable energy, biodiversity, and water management.

Leverage green finance. 

The PRC would need annual investment in energy transformation equivalent to 2%–2.5% of GDP from 2020 to 2050 to achieve a long-term low carbon transition pathway (2-degree transition pathway), according to a report by Tsinghua University’s Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development.

By the end of 2020, the sizes of outstanding green loans and green bonds were the world’s largest and second largest, respectively. Despite this rapid expansion of the green finance sector, a large financing gap remains. Thus, more capital needs to be mobilized to fund green infrastructure, which requires more private participation and broader funding base in addition to a well-designed and implemented public policy such as tax incentives, grants, legislation, and regulation.

Budget green.

The environmental impacts of the government’s budget choices are important to consider when designing policies. While public debt needs to be consolidated, public expenditure on social protection and green projects should be prioritized. The government can increase fiscal revenue by taxing emissions and polluting activities. International experience shows that green budgeting commonly involves tagging budget measures according to their climate and environment impacts. For example, 30% of the budget in France was allocated to green recovery measures in September 2020 based on this framework.

Monitor and evaluate the policies.

The government needs to identify and monitor the environmental impacts of its policies to ensure their alignment with climate and sustainability goals. Currently, such assessment is not fully in place yet, and there are only few databases to track and assess the environmental impact of government policies. Defining clear criteria and indicators for different policy areas and disclosing related results would be a good starting point.


The PRC has a historic opportunity to craft a “green” recovery from the pandemic if the right policies are put into place.

Author
Picture of Wen Qi

Wen Qi

Associate Economics Officer, PRC Resident Mission, ADB

This blog is reproduced from Asian Development Blog.

Unveiling the Sandstorms in the PRC

Early this year, the worst sandstorm in a decade hit Beijing, the PRC’s capital. How did this happen? What can ADB do to help tackle hazardous sandstorms? RKSI spoke to an expert who “loves desert lands”. Watch it on Bilibili

Climate Risk Country Profile: The PRC

中国的健康和老年友好型城市

Momentum Builder

Li Min/China Daily

By scaling up carbon capture, use and storage, China can play a leading role in achieving the global ambition of climate neutrality

China’s commitment to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 has been acclaimed as one of the most important climate actions in the world. Scholars at Cambridge Econometrics estimate that China’s commitment alone could cut global warming by 0.25 C-which would be a very significant contribution to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 C, and preferably to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.

To translate the carbon neutrality vision into reality, the world needs to deploy clean energy technologies on a massive scale, starting with solar photovoltaic. Between 2010 and 2020, the global capacity of solar PV increased about 18-fold from 40 gigawatts to 707 GW. During the same period, China’s solar PV capacity increased from 1 GW to 254 GW-growing at a phenomenal annual rate of 74 percent on average. By the end of 2020, solar PV in China accounted for 36 percent of the world total, followed by the United States (10 percent), Japan (9 percent), Germany (7 percent) and India (6 percent). China is also the major exporter of solar panels, having supplied more than 70 percent of demand in international markets.

The open recipe for such a great success for solar PV includes three main ingredients: international cooperation, enabling policies by governments and economies of scale.

In 2000, solar PV was still very costly at about $5 per watt. However, that year, Germany adopted its Renewable Energy Act and began providing attractive feed-in tariffs-essentially subsidies-to the developers of solar PV, which quickly helped Germany become the world’s largest solar market. As many countries followed suit by introducing similar incentive policies for solar energy, Chinese companies, mostly private entrepreneurs, developed full supply chains for solar PV to meet the growing demand in Europe, North America and Asia, including China’s own market.

China’s solar PV capacity overtook that of Germany in 2015, and since then China has maintained its position as the world’s leading solar nation. As solar PV has been deployed at such scale worldwide, the average cost of solar power has declined by more than 80 percent over the last decade. Solar power has become the cheapest form of energy in modern history and is now being deployed all over the world including in the least developed countries in Asia, Africa, and South America.

Beyond solar energy, China is also the world leader in wind power (38 percent of the world total), hydropower (28 percent), bioenergy (15 percent) in 2020, and sales of electric vehicles in China reached 1.3 million that year, representing 41 percent of the global EV market.

While all these clean technologies are an indispensable part of the low carbon transition, on their own they will not be sufficient to achieve carbon neutrality. The modeling work of Tsinghua University shows that, before 2060 when China is supposed to achieve carbon neutrality, fossil fuels would still account for about 19 percent of the primary energy consumption mix. This means that some advanced engineering must be developed to capture the carbon dioxide molecules produced from the burning of fossil fuels, use the captured CO2 if possible, and then store it permanently underground.

Such technology, known as “carbon capture, utilization and storage”, or CCUS, is an important option for reducing CO2 emissions in the energy sector and will be essential to achieving carbon neutrality. According to the International Energy Agency, for the whole world to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070, CCUS technologies alone will need to make up approximately 19 percent of global CO2 reductions, with other clean energy technologies making up the rest.

Despite the indispensable role of CCUS in achieving carbon neutrality, its deployment worldwide has been slow-so far there are only around 20 CCUS facilities in operation around the world. One of the main reasons for this is the high cost of CCUS technology, currently around $100 per metric ton of CO2. The situation of CCUS today is similar to solar PV 20 years ago, so the world needs to apply the same successful recipe for solar PV of cooperation, policies, and scale to the development of CCUS.

The good news is that momentum is building behind CCUS. Plans for more than 30 new CCUS facilities have been announced in recent years, and despite the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and industry have committed more than $4.5 billion to CCUS in 2020. In particular, the global energy industry is counting on China to once again play a crucial role in the development of CCUS as it did for solar PV. They have good reasons for this, as China has solid R&D capacity, a complete industry supply chain, very active entrepreneurship and strong policy commitments from the government to develop CCUS.

China also has a huge domestic market for the deployment of CCUS that will help bring down the cost to a more affordable level in the next decade. In terms of incentive schemes, unlike solar PV that benefited from public subsidies in the beginning of its development, CCUS deployment will primarily be driven by market forces such as carbon pricing. In January 2021, China launched its national carbon trading market, covering 2,225 thermal power plants which account for about 30 percent of China’s CO2 emissions. The carbon price will be a strong market signal for investors in low carbon technologies, as every single dollar increase in carbon price would mean a dollar cost reduction in favor of the competitiveness of CCUS technologies.

Carbon neutrality is a global mission and so far more than 110 countries and regions have announced their intentions to pursue carbon neutrality. In this essential journey to a more sustainable future, China will cooperate with the international community and lead the way by making clean technologies affordable for the benefit of the whole world. And just as China helped to drive global take-up of solar PV, it now has a golden opportunity to do the same for CCUS and play a leading role in achieving global climate neutrality.

Author
Picture of  Yongping Zhai

Yongping Zhai

Chief of Energy Sector Group, Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department

This Op-Ed is reproduced from China Daily.

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